TVGuide’s article earlier this month, How Delayed Viewing Is Changing the Primetime Game This Season, describes the impact of delayed viewership on the TV model. A show will only remain on the air when advertisers are willing to pay for ads. The article talked specifically about how much ratings a show gains by DVR/TiVo/VOD, network executives’ desire to start charging advertisers for beyond the live +3 day viewers, and how this will impact renewals since high viewership brings high advertiser revenue. The article’s emphasis on delayed viewership as the mode of change facing TV advertising ignored a key fact about DVR/TiVo (though not VOD)—you can fast forward through the commercials.
When watching a show on TiVo, I almost never let the commercials play through unless someone needs to go to the bathroom or run to get something. Occasionally I forget I can fast forward, but not often and rarely for more than one commercial. The main commercials that are seen in this format are the first commercial in a commercial break and maybe some of the last commercial (since few people can stop the fast forward at the exact right second). Viewers still see a little of the commercial when fast fowarding, since they have to actively monitor the screen to know when to push play again, but most of the carefully thought out messages generally go unheard and unread.
If I were an advertiser (especially not the first or last of a commercial break) I would not be happy if the network tried to charge me more when I know my commercials are not being watched. Under the current, commercial-based model, a show that gains its viewership in a time frame when the commercials no longer “count” does little to help the show remain on the air. So, if the networks cannot get much added payment for commercials through delayed viewership, how can networks capitalize on these additional viewers (and by extension, maximize their earnings for shows that have large growth outside the Live +3 day timespan)?
NEXT: My proposed solution.
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